H2 Rina – Oct 23-11

For the latest storm information, check www.StormPulse.com and the Belize Weather Bureau, including their Doppler Radar images extending 400 Km, 200 Km and 50 Km.  These images show rainfall and you’ll see any rain bands as they approach the coast…

Latest Reports from Caye Caulker Weather…

Oct 26, 2011 – 11:40 AM

I just got back from a bike ride around the village.  It’s pretty quiet but there are numerous locals around.  Some people have boarded up their homes or businesses but it’s definitely a minority…  Almost all the boats are pulled out of the water except on the west side of the caye where there are quite a few still in the water.  We’re still getting those ‘rollers’ coming in on the east side, about the same frequency as before, nothing too major…

Looking at the latest satellite images, I see the storm is moving further north and it seems to be weakening.  But we’ll see what the next update from NHC says, that’s what we should go by…  :)

The sun has come out again, the weather is actually quite nice right now.  You’d never think there was a big storm out there!  That’s it for now…  :)

Oct 26, 2011 – 9:10 AM

The latest report just came in from NHC…  They now report the movement of the storm as WNW as opposed to W in their earlier update.  This is GOOD news!  The northerly component of it’s path is very important and the sooner it makes more northerly movement, the better.  In addition, they now saying that the strength of the storm will remain at H2, not H3 as they were thinking.  They also say some weakening is expected, this is also good news!  And, it’s forward speed has increased from 3 mph to 5 mph.  This is also good, as it’s more difficult to forecast the track of a ‘meandering’ storm compared to a storm that has a definite speed and movement.

Oct 26, 2011 – 8:50 AM

For the most part, the forecast remains the same for Hurricane Rina. Overnight, the storm has moved 0.3 degrees west and 0.1 degrees north. It is more ‘compact’ this morning, meaning the hurricane force winds do not extend outward as far, compared to late yesterday… The forecast track indicates that a turn towards the north will be happening today. We’ll be watching it closely!

Oct 25, 2011 – 12:20 PM

The 2 PM ET update indicates that Hurricane Rina is making a nice turn to the North-West…  This is GOOD news for Belize!  Now, we just need the storm to continue having forward speed and continue it’s turn toward the north…

All is good here on Caye Caulker.  We have sunny skies and light winds from the north.  The barometer IS falling now…  It reads 1016.1 and falling at a rate of 1.3 per/hour…

Oct 25, 2011 – 5:40 AM

Hurricane Rina has now strengthened to Category 2 level.  Continued strengthening is forecast and this storm may be at Category 3 intensity by tonight or tomorrow morning.  Updated forecast models indicate a path of Hurricane Rina is very similar to yesterdays predictions.  Almost all the models show the storm turning north before approaching the coast of Belize.

Here on Caye Caulker this morning, our winds are from the north to north-west at an average of 12 mph, barometer 1017.0 and rising a bit over the last couple of hours.

I’m not a meteorologist but I have followed these storms for the last few years and watched the predictions made by the forecasters.  I would say they are more accurate in their predictions than ever before, especially over shorter forecast times.  That’s not to say that storms can’t make sudden changes in direction, because they can.  But it is true that the experience of the forecasters, the satellite technology available to them and the computer models that they have developed have come a long way to providing more accurate forecasts.  Let’s hope they are right again and this storm stays offshore…  :)

Oct 24, 2011 – 5:00 PM

Ok, we have a new storm…  A hurricane actually…  Hurricane Rina developed quickly from TS status and then was promptly upgraded to the possibility of major hurricane status.  At this point, they are predicting H2 status by noon on Tuesday and then H3 status by midnight tomorrow…

Presently, their predictions are that the storm will move northward, paralleling the coast of Belize up towards the Yucatan Peninsula…  You can be sure we’ll be watching this closely…  Our boat is already out of the water and we’ll be stocking up on a few things tomorrow.  We have flashlights & radio ready and are charging up batteries, just in case…


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