Latest Reports from Caye Caulker Weather…

Oct 26, 2011 – 11:40 AM

I just got back from a bike ride around the village.  It’s pretty quiet but there are numerous locals around.  Some people have boarded up their homes or businesses but it’s definitely a minority…  Almost all the boats are pulled out of the water except on the west side of the caye where there are quite a few still in the water.  We’re still getting those ‘rollers’ coming in on the east side, about the same frequency as before, nothing too major…

Looking at the latest satellite images, I see the storm is moving further north and it seems to be weakening.  But we’ll see what the next update from NHC says, that’s what we should go by… 

The sun has come out again, the weather is actually quite nice right now.  You’d never think there was a big storm out there!  That’s it for now… 

Oct 26, 2011 – 9:10 AM

The latest report just came in from NHC…  They now report the movement of the storm as WNW as opposed to W in their earlier update.  This is GOOD news!  The northerly component of it’s path is very important and the sooner it makes more northerly movement, the better.  In addition, they now saying that the strength of the storm will remain at H2, not H3 as they were thinking.  They also say some weakening is expected, this is also good news!  And, it’s forward speed has increased from 3 mph to 5 mph.  This is also good, as it’s more difficult to forecast the track of a ‘meandering’ storm compared to a storm that has a definite speed and movement.

Oct 26, 2011 – 8:50 AM

For the most part, the forecast remains the same for Hurricane Rina. Overnight, the storm has moved 0.3 degrees west and 0.1 degrees north. It is more ‘compact’ this morning, meaning the hurricane force winds do not extend outward as far, compared to late yesterday… The forecast track indicates that a turn towards the north will be happening today. We’ll be watching it closely!

Oct 25, 2011 – 12:20 PM

The 2 PM ET update indicates that Hurricane Rina is making a nice turn to the North-West…  This is GOOD news for Belize!  Now, we just need the storm to continue having forward speed and continue it’s turn toward the north…

All is good here on Caye Caulker.  We have sunny skies and light winds from the north.  The barometer IS falling now…  It reads 1016.1 and falling at a rate of 1.3 per/hour…

Oct 25, 2011 – 5:40 AM

Hurricane Rina has now strengthened to Category 2 level.  Continued strengthening is forecast and this storm may be at Category 3 intensity by tonight or tomorrow morning.  Updated forecast models indicate a path of Hurricane Rina is very similar to yesterdays predictions.  Almost all the models show the storm turning north before approaching the coast of Belize.

Here on Caye Caulker this morning, our winds are from the north to north-west at an average of 12 mph, barometer 1017.0 and rising a bit over the last couple of hours.

I’m not a meteorologist but I have followed these storms for the last few years and watched the predictions made by the forecasters.  I would say they are more accurate in their predictions than ever before, especially over shorter forecast times.  That’s not to say that storms can’t make sudden changes in direction, because they can.  But it is true that the experience of the forecasters, the satellite technology available to them and the computer models that they have developed have come a long way to providing more accurate forecasts.  Let’s hope they are right again and this storm stays offshore… 

Oct 24, 2011 – 5:00 PM

Ok, we have a new storm…  A hurricane actually…  Hurricane Rina developed quickly from TS status and then was promptly upgraded to the possibility of major hurricane status.  At this point, they are predicting H2 status by noon on Tuesday and then H3 status by midnight tomorrow…

Presently, their predictions are that the storm will move northward, paralleling the coast of Belize up towards the Yucatan Peninsula…  You can be sure we’ll be watching this closely…  Our boat is already out of the water and we’ll be stocking up on a few things tomorrow.  We have flashlights & radio ready and are charging up batteries, just in case…

Latest Reports from Caye Caulker Weather…

Aug 20, 2011 – 12:00 Noon

Things are just fine here Caye Caulker.  We’ve had some squalls with wind & rain but nothing too serious.  The wind has picked up in the last while, but dropped off very recently.  At the moment, the average is 19 mph with gusts to 31 in the last hour.

TS Harvey is reported to be have just made landfall near Dangriga with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts.  Now that it is over land, the storm will weaken significantly but continue inland…

This might be the last bit of news for TS Harvey…

Aug 20, 2011 – 9:30 AM

TS Harvey continues along it’s path towards the south coast of Belize.  Current predictions indicate that it’s center will make landfall just north of Hopkins, although there will be wind & rain north and south of there all day.  NOAA says there is still a possibility of H1 status before landfall, but it seems that they are predicting only TS conditions.  The 39 to 50 mph wind window extends north to Belize City and south to Placencia…  More later…

Aug 20, 2011 – 7:00 AM

This mornings forecast for TS Harvey is in now…  Currently, the storm has been downgraded somewhat and they don’t think it will reach H1 status now, it will remain as a TS.  There will still be lots of rain and winds may reach up to 70 mph as it approaches the south coast of Belize.  Right now, the forecast track indicates landfall just a few miles north of Placencia, although the entire coast in that area will experience high winds and lots of rain.  More later…

Aug 19, 2011 – 9:20 PM

The latest update from NOAA is that TS Harvey has strengthened a bit more…  Presently maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph with stronger gusts as it moves towards The Bay Islands.  And, the most worrisome news is that the storm will likely reach Hurricane 1 status before it makes landfall on the south coast of Belize.  At this point, the landfall is predicted to be 14 miles north of Placencia, near Riverside.

Here at Caye Caulker, we are just at the edge of the ‘wind window’ where winds speeds of 39 to 57 mph are possible.  I’m glad to have the boat out of the water already and tomorrow we’ll make some more preparations, just in case the storm turns north…  That’s it for now…

Aug 19, 2011 – 6:20 PM

This just in…  The latest report NOW is that the storm is a bit further SOUTH, a little closer to the Honduras coast.  Same as last report though, the storm will remain over water and intensify as it moves west towards The Bay Islands and on to Belize…

Aug 19, 2011 – 6:00 PM

Ok, this is the first storm report of the season…  Tropical Storm Harvey was conceived this afternoon and is scheduled to arrive on the shores of southern Belize tomorrow afternoon or evening…

The storm is a little further north than originally thought and hurricane hunter aircraft confirm that the center of circulation is well off the northern shore of Honduras.  This means that the storm will remain over water and intensify as it draws energy from the warm water.

We’ll keep an eye on it and report from time to time…

Latest Reports from Caye Caulker Weather…

Oct.25, 2010 – 10:00 AM

Well, I just got back from a bike ride through the village to asses what damage has occoured as a result of Hurricane Richard.  And, I have surprisingly LITTLE to report!

People are raking up sea grass, coconuts and palm fronds from the beach and streets.  Some boats are back in the water, all the others will be soon, I’m sure.  I saw no damaged buildings and didn’t hear of any either. I think we REALLY lucked out again…

Our thoughts are with the people to the south of us and inland where the hurricane was felt to a much greater degree…

One more thing…  Yesterday, on Sunday, we had 1,823 visitors to CateCaulkerWeather and just under 7,000 page views!  Wow!  This is a new, one day record for our little website, we’re quite pleased… 

That’s it for now, another storm under our belts for 2010…

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Oct.24, 2010 – 7:27 PM

Quick update… Winds are generally lower as of late, averaging in the low to mid 30′s.  Mostly from the east but some wind from the ESE as well…  About an hour ago, we had a new record gust for this storm at 57 mph…

Wave action is pretty high at the moment.  Although, it’s not as bad as it was in the last storm, TS Matthew…

Still getting steady rain, quite heavy at times but I see the Doppler Radar shows less rain on the horizon for us fairly soon…

Bye for now…

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Oct.24, 2010 – 6:10 PM

The 7 PM CDT update just came in…  They say Hurricane Richard is about to make landfall.  Based on the doppler radar images, I think it already HAS made landfall…  Oh well…

The report indicated 90 mph and the storm is moving at 10 mph.  There was some speculation that the storm might reach Cat 2 level before landfall, but it was not to be…  Thankfully…

On Caye Caulker, we’ve had almost steady rain ranging from quite light to VERY heavy.  Winds have been sustained in the mid 40′s with another gust or two to 56 mph.  The weather console says ‘ Hold on to your hat!’ (the console actually has a sense of humor!).  Winds are now solidly from the east and just starting to come from the ESE…  Just what we expected…

That’s it for now, hope everyone is safe and sound…  Bye for now…

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Oct.24, 2010 – 5:05 PM

Quick update here…  Based on the current 50 km Doppler Radar image from Belize MET, the eastern eye wall of the hurricane has reached the coast between Belize City and Dangriga.  They are likely experiencing winds from the north at around 90 mph.  I sure hope everyone is safe…

This image to the right shows the eye wall at the coast…

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Oct.24, 2010 – 4:07 PM

More wind now with average in the mid 40′s and gusts to 56 mph…  Sounds like a freight train!  Barometer is still falling rapidly and now shows 1007.0 mb.

One more thing… We usually have about 100 visitors per day at CayeCaulker Weather but TODAY, so far, the number of visitors stands at 903!  Wow!

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Oct.24, 2010 – 3:25 PM

Lots of wind here on Caye Caulker with regular gusts to 45 mph and moderate to heavy rains.  Wind direction is shifting from the NE,  to the ENE at this point.  The barometer sits at 1007.2 and falling rapidly.

At the hurricanes core, maximum sustained winds are at 90 mph with higher gusts and minimum central pressure is 981 mb.  It appears that the storm is about 25 miles from the mainland at this point, so that would make landfall at about 5:00 PM local.  At least it won’t be dark yet…  I imagine a hurricane making landfall in the pitch black might be scarier than in the daylight!

I hope everyone is safe!  We’re all fine, ticked away safely inside…   Bye for now…

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Oct.24, 2010 – 1:45 PM

Bands of  heavy rain have reached Caye Caulker and will reach the mainland coast of Belize very soon, from Belize City and south.

Here at Caye Caulker Weather, winds are averaging 28 mph with a gust to 38 mph a few minutes ago.  Barometer is 1009.1 and falling rapidly.

The 1:00 PM Doppler Radar image to the right showns heavy rain in green and the center of the hurricane is quite visible.

Current landfall is thought to be just south Belize City, later this afternoon.

There are very few people on the streets of Caye Caulker now, everyone is at home, taking shelter from the wind and rain.  More later, stay safe…

Check out the Caye Caulker Weather webcam view with this LINK…

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Oct.24, 2010 – 11:55 AM

Latest forecast just in…  Maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, hurricane is moving at 13 mph and some strengthening is expected before it makes landfall… Landfall is predicted to be between Dangriga and Belize City…

On Caye Caulker, we’ve just had a rain band pass us by with a good downpour and gusty winds.  It’s passed now and winds are from the north at 6 mph and barometric pressure is 1011.9 and falling… We’ve had 0.49 inches of rain so far today…

We’re still getting some bigger waves breaking on the beach and the tide is falling now for the next few hours…

All our storm preparations are complete, we now just wait and see…  More later…

Oct.24, 2010 – 9:45 AM

Ok, it’s official now…  The storm has been upgraded to Hurricane Richard.  Maximum sustained winds are now at 85 mph and as of a short while ago it was located about 95 miles ESE of Belize City. Minimum central pressure is 991 mb… Forward speed has increased to 12 mph.  Predicted storm track is the same… Some additional strengthening is expected before the hurricane makes landfall.

On Caye Caulker, the wind is out of the NE at 17 mph, barometer is 1014.4 and rising slowly. We are starting to get some storm surge action here on the east side of the caye.  Occasional rogue waves are breaking higher on the beach and generally the water is higher than usual. We have a high tide at 11 am local time followed by low tide at 4:08 pm and then the higher high tide at 10:23 pm.  THAT’S the critical time, there will be high winds coinciding with high tide and storm surge.  Tie up those boats on the beach!

More later…

Oct.24, 2010 – 6:40 AM

Good morning all…  Not much new to report at this hour.  Storm strength is the same, forecast track is the same and it’s predicted that by noon today this system will reach hurricane status.

Tropical Storm Richard is currently passing just north of the Bay Islands and as of about an hour ago it was 129 miles from Belize City…

Here on Caye Caulker, we got 0.25 inches of rain in the night with that passing rain band.  The wind is generally from the north averaging 11 mph with cloudy skies.  Barometer is 1013.2 mb and generally steady…  More later, bye for now…

Oct.24, 2010 – 3:20 AM

This latest forecast from about 20 minutes ago indicates the storms wind speeds still at 70 mph but the storms forward speed has increased from 8 mph to 10 mph.  In addition, the forecast track has moved slightly further north again and now they are thinking it will make landfall just a few miles north of Dangriga.  The storm is now approaching the Bay Islands off Honduras and Doppler radar shows they are getting heavy rain there right now.

Here on Caye Caulker, it’s been a quiet, calm night but just now, the wind has shifted from the north to the east, increasing winds from 6 to 9 mph to the high 20′s with a gust to 32 mph.  This rain squall, or rain band, is typical as a storm approaches and we’ll see more of these as the storm gets closer. In fact, Doppler radar shows another rain band approaching the coast, about 120 miles from us now, this one much larger with heavier rain. Right now, the wind is in the mid 20′s and the weather station here says ‘It’s raining cats & dogs’ and indeed, it is coming down pretty good at the moment!

The barometer reads 1012.8 but as the storm approaches, we’ll see this drop.  At the center of the storm right now, they estimate the barometric pressure to be 995 mb.

One other thing about this latest forecast…  It’s predicted that as of noon today, Sunday, the storm will reach hurricane status.  Given the forecast track for the storm is just a bit further north than before, it looks like Caye Caulker might be right at the edge of the 58 to 73 mph wind window. We’ll see…

The image on the right shows the Doppler Radar mounted on top of the Belize Meteorological Service located at Ladyville, near Belize City.

That’s it for the moment, stay safe everyone.

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Oct.23, 2010 – 9:10 PM

At this time, maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph with higher gusts but this system is still considered a tropical storm.  By 6 AM Sunday, it is forecast that winds will increase to 75 mph and we’ll officially call him Hurricane Richard.

The forecast track has moved slightly again to the north and it now shows a predicted landfall just a few miles south of Dangriga.  However, it could be north of there, or south, we’ll have to wait and see.  Landfall should occur in the evening on Sunday, maybe around 8 PM.

Here on Caye Caulker, we’ll be within the 39 to 57 mph wind window by the early to mid afternoon.  Given the counter-clockwise rotation of storms in the northern hemisphere, and given the storm will be passing to the south of us, we’ll have winds from the north and north-east to begin with.  Then, as the storm continues it’s path west, the winds will shift to the east and then around to the south east.  With this storm, we’ll likely see the highest winds when they are from the east and south east, maybe in the range of 50 to 60 mph  …. Large, wind driven waves crossing over the reef are likely to come ashore on the east side of the caye.

We are very lucky to have new Doppler radar installed here in Belize about two years ago.  This radar shows rainfall all the way out to 400 Km.  Follow this LINK to the website for the Belize Meteorological Service showing the 400 Km image.  Keep the window open in your browser and refresh it from time to time to see the advancing storm…  Very cool… 

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Oct.23, 2010 – 6:10 PM

Once again, the latest forecast issued just a couple of minutes ago is not that different from the last one… Now TS Richard is 267 miles from Belize City.

For those living on along the east side of the caye, keep in mind there will likely be a storm surge associated with the passing of Richard.  Current predictions are for an increase of normal tides by a factor as much as 2 to 4 feet for the northern coast of Honduras and Belize.  Further north here on Caye Caulker we may not see this much, but you never know…

Rainfall amounts could be 3 to 5 inches with storm totals up to 7 inches so it looks like this might be a wet one!  Check your storm shutters!

The weather was just beautiful here today! Light breezes and lots of sunshine.  It’s hard to believe that just 24 hours from now we’ll be in the thick of it with rain, wind and lots of excitement…

Stay safe everyone and get ready as early as you can!

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Oct.23, 2010 – 3:30 PM

The latest forecast is very similar to the last one…  Maximum sustained winds winds at 65 mph and the storm is moving at 8 mph.  The storm is still at tropical storm strength and it’s 282 miles from Belize city.  The forecast track has moved a bit further south, I calculate the forecast land fall it to be about 12 miles north of Placencia or about 20 miles south of Dangriga.

On Caye Caulker, people are making preparations: boats out of the water, storm shutters in place and making sure to be stocked up on food and water.  We have our boat safely in the yard now, along with 5 other boats!  This property has a history of boats and boat building and several of the local folks have their boats here at the moment…

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Oct.23, 2010 – 12:10 PM

Ok, the latest update has been issued by the National Weather Service and it indicates that the Government of Belize has now issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Belize.  At present, maximum sustained winds at the core of the storm are 65 mph with higher gusts and tropical storm force wind extend out 85 miles.  The storm is still quite a distance out there, 310 miles from Belize City.

The forecast track remains the same from the last update with a prediction that it will approach the southern coast of Belize, near Dangriga.  The storm will approach on Sunday afternoon as a Category 1 Hurricane and will reach the coast in the early evening…  See links above for current info…

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Oct. 23, 2010 – 10:09 AM

The latest storm track prediction brings the path a  little closer to Caye Caulker, but still south of Belize City.  It WILL be windy here tomorrow afternoon!  On Sunday morning, we’ll be making the final storm preps, including take the boat out of the water…

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Oct 23, 2010 – 8:32 AM

Well, it looks like the forecast track for this storm is now further south and a direct approach to Caye Caulker is not predicted.  We’ll still get winds and rain from the north, and then from the east but the heart of the storm will pass to the south.

We’ll be making some storm preparations this morning as other Caye Caulker residents will be, we have to be prepared…  More later…

Hurricane Paula is passing by Belize. All watches have been canceled and it seems we are in the clear on this on… Belize is very luck in that this is what happens with the vast majority of storms…. They move north right past Belize… That’s it for this one!

Oct. 12, 2010, 4:45 AM GMT-6

Hurricane Paula is now the ninth hurricane of the season. Current maximum sustained wind speeds are at 75 mph. Since my last post here 12 hours ago, the forecast track has moved further east, away from the coast of Belize. The TS Watch has been discontinued for the coast of Belize. It is likely that we’ll still get rain later today but we shouldn’t get much of the wind from Paula…

Currently here on Caye Caulker, winds are from the NW at 9 mph and the barometer is 1012.2 and rising slightly… More later…

Oct. 11, 2010, 4:45 PM GMT-6

New storm out there! Tropical Storm Paula is heading north and current predictions see her off the coast of Belize over the next 18 hours. By noon on Tuesday, they’re thinking Cat 1 Hurricane 145 miles NE of Belize City…

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Check www.stormpulse.com for the latest info…

Things are settling down a bit now, the winds have eased to the mid 30′s now, with gusts to 40 or so… The waves are not as bad as well… The wind is shifting, it’s now coming from the south east and south… There will be a lot of cleanup in the next few days and all hands will help out… I just got back from a bike ride to The Split and back, and have posted some photos below…..

Sept. 25, 2010 at 9:27 AM…

Sorry for the lack of updates this morning… Things are pretty crazy here right now… We are experiencing sustained winds up the mid 40′s with maximum gusts to 49 mph. Waves are crashing on the beach, the pier is loosing some boards.. High tide is still 30 minutes away so the water will likely get higher… We are safe and very thankful that we pulled the boat out of the water yesterday!

This page displays a series of webcam photos from our Caye Caulker Weather weather station.  From time to time, when it’s a beautiful day or when the cloud formations are simply spectacular or if we have wind & storms, we’ll take a snapshot of what the webcam is seeing at the moment.  Now, we have a collection of these photos to share with you…  Have a look!

Click on a photo to view it full size and then use the navigation arrows at the bottom of the photo to look at the next photo. Click directly on the photo to close the viewer… Or, click on ‘View with PicLens’ to see the photos in a slide show. You can even choose full screen mode… Enjoy!

If you want to see what the weather is like right now on Caye Caulker, follow this link to our Caye Caulker Weather Webcam page…

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[View with PicLens]

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June 26, 2010, 10:15 PM CMT
- windy now, still from the south, 10 minute average is 23 mph, gusting to 35 mph, rain has stopped
- barometer 1003.6 and rising
- we believe the storm has passed for the most part, just need to ride out this last bit of wind for a few more hours..
- next update in the morning

June 26, 2010, 7:38 PM CMT
- ok, I’m wet… VERY WET
- I just went outside to check on the boats, they’re ok, but big winds and waves are hitting them from the south
- the wind and waves are coming parallel to the shore, so they’re hitting the dock and boats broadside…
- the winds are still from the south, 10 min average is 27 mph with gusts to 40 mph
- barometer 999.8 mb and rising with steady rain…

June 26, 2010, 7:10 PM CMT
- wow, strong winds from the south now, 10 min average is 31 mph with gusts to 41 mph
- the wind direction is indicative of the fact that the storm is to the west of us now…
- earlier, reports were that maximum sustained winds were 65 mph, now I believe it
- winds on the north and east sides of storms are higher…
- barometer has risen a bit, now at 998.5 mb…

June 26, 2010, 5:52 PM CMT
- the latest news is that the center of the storm is 10 to 15 SE of Belize City
- winds here are still from the north, we should see them change to the east as the storm moves further west
- usually, the winds north and east of a storm are the highest, but we haven’t seen anything like what they say the max sustained winds are
- the highest we’ve see today is gusts to 38 mph
- right now, the 10 minute average wind speed is just 10 mph, with rain showers, not too heavy…
- barometer is now 996.3 mb, the lowest I’ve seen in a while…

June 26, 2010, 3:51 PM CMT
Another quick update:
- here on Caye Caulker the wind is picking up again, presently from the North at 18 mph with gusts to 28 mph and increasing
- barometer is still falling at 1000.6
- people have been pulling their boats out of the water all day
- all the stores are closing at 5 pm and word on the street is that the big winds will be here in an hour
- the fire truck has been going up & down the streets with the siren on making sure that everyone knows about the storm
- we’re ready here!

June 26, 2010, 2:47 PM CMT
- the 16:00 EST report indicates a change in the path of the storm
- it is now expected to pass SOUTH of Caye Caulker and in fact, south of Belize City, estimated pressure is 996 mb
- at the center of the storm, winds are estimated at 65 mph
- here, we have winds from the North at 12 mph, gusts to 19 mph, barometer 1001.7 mb and falling

June 26, 2010, 2:17 PM CMT

- the high winds have passed for the moment and it’s strangely quiet
- the wind has shifted to the east for the last 30 minutes, but now it’s coming back around to the north
- barometer is now 1002.1 and falling…
- more later…

June 26, 2010, 1:15 PM CMT

- Tropical Storm Alex is fast approaching the northern coast of Belize. Actually, it’s heading right for Caye Caulker…
- we have winds from the NW at 19 mph with gusts to 38 mph
- the barometer is falling rapidly at 1002.3 mb
- we’re expecting winds to be in the range of 60 mph by 6 PM and through the evening
- the shutters are down, we have extra drinking water on hand, the boat is secure…